Monday, October 13, 2008

SUPER TUESDAYS ON SWOOSH0018





On Super Tuesdays..we give the readers an opportunity to write, showcase stuff etc....Below is an interesting article sent in by Ebrahim Ahmed. Also on the blog we gonna be rocking with Woza 2010 Woza. We found our man.....watch the space








Fact or fiction? 'Form' in football
Always back a striker in form to score... or should you? A new book explodes some of the widely held beliefs about the game, as Nick Harris discovers

The leading striker at your club – or for your country – has just banged in a hat-trick. He must be in "form", mustn't he? And thus more likely than average to score in his next game as well? No, actually.
According to a new book, the concept of "form" in football is a myth. Analysis suggests that the goalscoring runs of even the supposed "hottest" strikers are no more attributable to a "form streak" than they are to chance.
The book, Myths and Facts About Football, draws together academic research from around the world, taking to task widely held notions about the beautiful game. Many intuitive beliefs are shown to be flawed. Teams do not run a greater risk of conceding just after scoring. Home teams in penalty shoot-outs have no advantage.
By subjecting what happens in football to scientific and mathematical tests, economists and psychologists argue that other "football phenomena" are indeed provable. Second-leg home advantage in two-legged cup ties is real. Teams that celebrate goals collectively achieve better results. Penalty takers who shoot down the middle have the best chance of scoring.
"There really is a gap in the understanding of football that could be filled with more rigorous scientific analysis of what happens," says Professor Peter Ayton, a psychologist at City University, London, and one of the book's editors and contributors.
"These days on television, you see discussions about football that are more prominent than the football itself, but most of it is just opinion. My field, psychology, shows judgement, even of so-called experts, shouldn't be trusted on its own. Where you can actually check something with data, why not?"
Professor Ayton accepts that the work of "data fiends" in football is in its infancy, and that only when larger-scale studies on more aspects of the game are completed will it gain wider acceptance. But as one of his fellow "fiends" writes in the book's preface: "Data can tell you far more than commentators, experts, former players or casual pundits. Objective measurement is not just a way to rank and value players, but the only way. A statement made about football that can't be quantified and tested using data is a non-statement.
"Over the next 10 years, managers are going to twig to this. When there are millions of pounds at stake they aren't going to go on valuing players by reading football magazines and watching a video, are they? So we, the data fiends, are going to take over the world... Starting with this book."
Fiction: Strikers have periods of 'hot' form when they are more likely to score
A widely held belief in strikers' "form" was echoed by a researcher's survey of Premier League players, a large majority of whom believed scoring goals increased the chances of goals in the next game. But a statistical analysis of goals "by the 12 leading forwards in the Premiership for 1994-95 and 1995-96 seasons" showed "no significant association" between one goal and another.
For example, Alan Shearer scored in 79 per cent of home games (34/43). But when he had failed to score in his previous home game his rate was 85 per cent (17/20). In other words, his form was "hotter" when he had not scored, although not significantly hotter, statistically. The same pattern was observed for Shearer away from home, and overall. The same analysis was done on 11 other players – Beardsley, Cantona, Fowler, Le Tissier and Sheringham among them – and "none of the associations for any player, home or away, show a pattern of scoring such that players are more likely to score if they scored in their previous game."
Ayton accepts there is a "plausible" logic in the belief in form – in other words, that goals lead to confidence and goals and a virtuous cycle – but says it is just as plausible to say that goals lead to complacency. The stats show neither. "Form" as a generic concept in football is as likely as "form" for heads or tails in a series of coin tosses.
Fact: Second-leg home advantage exists
Home advantage is a well established phenomenon across many sports, including football. But it is also statistically and significantly true that in two-legged cup ties the overall advantage falls to the team playing at home in the second leg.
Research led by a London-based French academic, Lional Page, considered 6,182 European ties (12,364 matches) between 1955 and 2006, and found a probability of 53.77 (against an expected 50) that the home team in the second leg wins. The phenomenon, which has declined over time, cannot be attributed exclusively to extra time and penalties in some second legs. One theory is that more is at stake in the second leg and "home advantage" factors (crowd, familiarity with the pitch, referee bias) intensify in the decisive, second match.
Fiction: Teams run a greater risk of conceding just after scoring
The common gesture of a manager pointing urgently to his head just after his team has scored appears to convey a particular need for "cool" and "focus" at such times. But a study of 127 Premiership matches finishing 1-1 between 1994 and 1996 showed teams are no more likely to concede just after scoring than at any other time. The time remaining after the first goal in each of those games was divided in four. If the myth were true, more equalisers should be observed in the first quartile. In fact, that period produced the fewest goals (16.54 per cent), with the highest percentage (31.5) in the fourth quartile.
Fact: Goalkeepers dive too often for penalties, as opposed to standing still, which is more effective
Two German economists, Wolfgang Leininger and Axel Ockenfels, suggest that the very nature of the penalty kick altered when Johan Neeskens became the first player in a truly high-profile match – for the Netherlands in the 1974 World Cup final – to shoot down the middle, as opposed to one side. He scored.
This "clever innovation" was then successfully replicated by Czechoslovakia's Antonin Panenka in the final of the 1976 European Championship.
To simplify a hugely complicated subject, the perception of the "penalty game" shifted from being two-strategy (left or right) to three (middle as well), and the theoretical chances of success for strikers rose. One study of 459 penalties in France and Italy from 1997-2000 (Chiappori et al, 2002), showed that kicking down the middle, on average, has the highest success rate, of 81 per cent, against 70.1 per cent success aiming to the right corner, and 76.7 per cent to the left. But the convention of "right or left" holds sway, generally. A separate study by two Israeli academics suggests staying in the centre of the goal might enhance a goalkeeper's chances of making a save.
In a study of 286 spot-kicks, they observed that goalkeepers who stayed in the middle saved a much higher proportion of kicks aimed at the middle compared to keepers making dives for shots placed to the sides. But to simplify again, numerous studies suggest an "action bias" in goalkeepers: they would rather move and fail to save than stay put and fail, even knowing that staying put might be a better strategy.
Fact: Teams who celebrate goals collectively achieve better results
A psychological study of scorers' behaviour following each of 125 goals in the Israeli Premier League in 1992 assessed where the player immediately went (crowd/coach/team-mates), his destination (off field/toward crowd but not off pitch/where most team-mates were) and number of players making contact with the scorer.
"Post-scoring behaviour was found to be a fairly good predictor of team success," the researchers found. Whether cohesion equals success, or vice versa, needs further study, although coaches are advised that post-scoring behaviour can provide "useful information about the players' attitude towards the team".
Fiction: Taking the lead just before half-time makes a win much more likely
An analysis of Premiership games between August 1992 and October 1995 showed that 355 matches had a 1-0 scoreline at half-time. A survey of Premier League players showed that footballers had a belief that scoring just before half-time was better than earlier in the game. But the researchers say: "The time when that goal was scored doesn't have any effect on the game; rates of win, lose or draw hardly vary at all [statistically] as a function of when the first goal was scored."
However, while this study suggests that success via late first-half goals is myth, Professor Ayton also cites a larger, more recent study, of almost 20,000 games, that suggests a discernible, but not large, advantage in scoring just before half-time.
Fact: Player performance is strongly affected by relative income
Or in other words, when a player's salary rises (or drops) relative to his team-mates' pay, his performance improves (or declines). German and Swiss economists demonstrated this by studying goals, assists and ball usage (and salaries) of players at 28 clubs in the German Bundesliga between 1995 and 2004. The "robust findings" show the relationship is not simply that "better players earn more" but that the "causality runs from pay to performance, not the other way round". Willingness to perform, as in many jobs, depends on relative pay.
Fiction: Starting a penalty shoot-out is an advantage
A study into performance under pressure examined 95 penalty shootouts in the German FA Cup between 1986 and 2006. The results found "no grain of truth" in the idea that taking the first kick in a shoot-out held any advantage. Nor did home teams fare any better, statistically, than visitors. The researchers said: "It is particularly noteworthy that the relative frequency of the home team winning in a shoot-out, is, in fact, considerably smaller than the frequency of home teams winning in a match during the regular season... 'choking' could influence penalty conversion of home team players negatively."




'Myths and Facts about Football: The Economics and Psychology of the World's Greatest Sport', edited by Patric Andersson, Peter Ayton and Carsten Schmidt (Cambridge Scholars Publishing), will be published on 1 November. Paperback £12.99; hardback £39.99. Available via http://www.c-s-p.org/, at amazon.co.uk, or order in


any bookshop (ISBN 9781847186225)




WAG OF THE DAY






fAT Ronaldo was here




UNCLE BHAI GORAS MUGG OF DA WEEK



They vant to change the Springbok logo. Ouver countree. Are dey mad. How can you change the name of certain things. Certain things in life cannot be changed. I know I vanted the job. But if I vant De Villiers job I vant to be coach of SPRINGBOKS.




Back to my point. Let me do physo analyis of certain important vords. Vat vud ve do if Guwerment changes the name of Biryani to exotic Indian Dish. EID. .....


Vut confusion. Vat did you eat on Eid Day Saleem Bhai. I ate EID Exotic Indian Dish.


Biryaani is vun vord that cannot be changed. The essence vil be gone. The owes vont say ay...check that small chaaro owe dragging the Biryani pots on Addigton beach on Sunday.




How vud the Indians feel if the Word Biryaani vas changed. Its ouver culture. our heritage, ouver traditional dish.




Certain tings cannot be changed. Like vat if Giuwerment says Akalwayas cannot use Masala anymore. Dis is vat absurd changes da bastards are making. Dont be surprised.




How can you change the name Coca Cola, How can you change da name dagga or anyting od substance


Da springboks is culture. its tradition. Its vat SA Rugby stands for. I asked Svoosh...to get a few words from PIM model Mandie Wagner who he watched the 2007 final with.




She is an avid Springbok fan

Swoosh:Whats ur views on this Mandie. Taking away the Sprinbok emblem


Mandie:i believe that sport should not come under political fire..EVER...any sport
!!!!


Swoosh:how important is this to a die hard rugby sa fan


Mandie: sport and music is the heart and soul of this country that unites people
mandela wore the springbok jersey and not once, until now has this ever been an issue
the all blacks do not want to play south africa or whoever...they want to play against the sprinboks!!!!
Our national team has been known as the Springboks for over a hundred years...why take that heritage away!
there are a lot of other races, not only whites, that are against this and see this as absurd!
BOKKE!...it comes so sweet off the tongue!!!


Please support Mandies group on facebook




So for dis terrible idea,,,They are my MUGGS OF DA WEEK. AREH MAYBE DEY WANNA CHANGE RUGBY TEAM to Bafana Bafana, Cricket to Amaglug glug and Soccer team to Springbos. Who da f#4k knows


UBG ,OVER AND OUT




29 comments:

  1. I want Killa's job.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Springboks are the Springboks. Thats how we know them. It cant be done. Likewise you cant change Bafana Bafana

    If you want to make a change , change SAFA

    Esoep Bhaai Montgomerry

    ReplyDelete
  3. Azee ,Seth and ZK.Please I would like to hear your views on the SA Rugby Emblem.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Berbatov regrets joing Man Utd.

    Why did the Mugg go in the first place

    Rana Navid ul Hassen

    ReplyDelete
  5. Why dont you make Robinho Mugg of the week Swoosh

    ReplyDelete
  6. Did anyone know Lucas Radebes wife has passed away after a long battle with Cancer. May she RIP

    Soldier on RUE.

    As a pointer Lucas was the most successful South African in the Premiership

    Hey Marty, Do you remember when Lucas donned the Goalkeeping jersey once

    afzl

    ReplyDelete
  7. Liverpool K@3TS

    dO YOU remember that phrase

    "WONDERFUL STRIKE BY TONY YEBOAH"

    What belter

    Rumour has it the Hung like a horse Yaboah belted alot of English chics

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ohhhh Leeds were fine back in the day

    Azee amd Mini. Do you remember David Batty and jHON lUKIC

    mCFLY..ANYBODY HOme mCflY

    ReplyDelete
  9. Swoosh.Who would you say on form is currently the Best Player in the World

    The Half E SAAP

    ReplyDelete
  10. I dunno Half E SAAP

    Again they will lambast me for being Biased...lucky Buffon is injured...so ....

    But I would say Messi or Kaka

    They are consistant, extremely skillfull and proven on the BIG STAGE

    Penaltino is good. But these guys are better

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hey McFly

    Do you remembe rthe penalty kicking Jose Louis Chilavert the goalie

    Is he not playing in the Footsal Cup, or is that his brew

    ReplyDelete
  12. mini steve hodge, gary mcalister and old strachan, those were the days!

    ReplyDelete
  13. The F**KEN Springboks a GAY EMBLEM along with the Protea!

    Someone said the All Blacks want to play against the Boks, not SA! Ooh so scary the Springbok as opposed to the Protea or Blu Crane! What you gonna do, hop along and piss on them. They wanna play the Boks because they love F**KING them up!

    Hey Marty you remember how i F**KED your gay Boks up in 2003. Even though i played with diarhoea!

    Tim Horan

    ReplyDelete
  14. on the amblem thing swoosh all other sports have changed to other amblems. what makes rugby so special that they cant change. the amblem and anthems etc are touchy. something that me think was on saturday i was driving in the OFS near villiers on the side roads, and i saw a farm where at the entrance this mugg had the old sa flag with the old transvaal republic flag from teh 1800's. now this dood must be having black labourers working there and they got to see that shit everyday. they symbolise over 300 years of opression and maybe its time for the bok amblem to go!

    ReplyDelete
  15. hey tim u and jason little were awesome! remember how we fucked u up in 95 when peter handriks ran around campese?

    marty mcfly

    ReplyDelete
  16. remember rene hegueta and the scorpion kick, remember how he tried to dribble roger milla in 90 and messed up?

    marty mcfly

    ReplyDelete
  17. The Haarie PoyreeTuesday, 14 October, 2008

    Us farmer ppl love the springboks

    We also love gemsboks, blesboks and even Reeboks.. Bought at Rashid Cassim when we come to Jhb Rand show time..

    The haarie poyree

    ReplyDelete
  18. Marty..
    Do u remeber Jorge Campos and his designer kit..

    And he didnt want to swap with that Norwegian keeper in a world cup..

    Do u also remember the legend keepers.. Walter Zenga and Andoni Zubizeretta.. Wat about the bali Taffarel..

    And what about Bruce Grobbelar

    ReplyDelete
  19. Yeboah was class

    But remember that doos lity Alan Smith?

    He scored his debut against the scum for Leeds!

    Hasselbank and Gary speed were two of my favourites

    You guys forget Vinnie Jones was also a Leeds boy!

    Marty remember Teardrops-Lovestation,The winners?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Fookin hell swoosh....
    whats up with all the blasts from the pasts

    the comments are being dominated with events from yester year

    My two cents on the springbok issue : who cares???? a rose by any other name will still smell as sweet
    Give the All Blacks a white kit, and they will still whip the boks!

    As the Santana issue.... i heard him on TV last night...what rubbish!!! couldnt make out a word he was saying.... there werent any subtitles, so im guessing the oke was talking english.... can anyone confirm???


    ABR

    ReplyDelete
  21. Santana is a MUGG ABR.

    abr.wats ur views on Penaltino and Madrid bid. Will he F#4k off

    ReplyDelete
  22. ABR alot of us want crime,corruption,hatred,ineffieciency,etc out of the country

    That includes the emblem(a symbol of past opression)But we still want the Rugby team to be made of quality players!

    Hey Marty wasnt George Benson class???( for them Jazz lovers)
    What about Jimmy Dlulu


    Fred Savage

    ReplyDelete
  23. Well it doesnt matter what you call something.... the insides still remain the same.... all the Durban street names were changed, but the buildings still stand.

    The Ponting and Carlton Centre are landmarks that dominate the JHB skyline. These were built in the oppressive past. Should we tear down these symbols as well???


    ABR

    ReplyDelete
  24. abr are u 10 years old?
    ur comparisons are childish. the ponti and carlton are not monuments of opression! the bok symbol is coz if u were of colour u would never be a springbok! it was the epitomy of white south africa there pride and joy! rugby was there game and to be a bok was reserved for them!

    ReplyDelete
  25. I AGREE
    WITH AZEE

    ReplyDelete
  26. ABR is jus pLAIN DOF.

    dof retard.

    ReplyDelete
  27. 1,2,3
    COME WITH ME
    AND LETS WE ALL AGREE
    WITH THE MAN AZEE


    THE POET

    ReplyDelete
  28. Mini

    Don't try to claim Vinnie Jones, the man was part and parcel of the Crazy Gang and then joined the Yorkshiteman!

    Hey McFly you remember how Bernie Larkham kicked that drop in 99 to F**k you okes up in the semi?

    Here's a song we sing in the changeroom before we get on the field to F**K the boks up:

    Kyk how ry die BOERE, drie op a drol, vinger in die hol, bles poepol! HOERA! HEITA MY BRA! HOERA!

    JASON LITTLE

    ReplyDelete
  29. ABR , U DUMB CUNT

    MOEJOE

    ReplyDelete

Leave a Comment.Become a Member.Open a Google account Now!